Publications

2019

1. Determinants of Export Diversification: a Bayesian Approach

   Ricardo Najarro ,  Wilder Pérez ,  and  César Salinas

   Revista de Análisis Económico y Financiero (In Spanish), Jun 2019

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   Export diversification provides economies with various benefits such as promoting and stabilizing economic growth by reducing the volatility of export earnings and increasing productivity through positive intra- and inter-sectoral externalities. In this sense, it is relevant to be able to identify what enables the diversification of exports; however, given a disperse theoretical framework, this identification becomes an arduous task. Using the Bayesian Moving Average methodology, this document tries to find which idiosyncratic factors from each country are relevant to explain greater export diversification in the long run. The results suggest that six elements are the most important to explain export diversification. These are: i) income from natural resources, ii) population, iii) gross capital formation (capital stock), iv) secondary education, v) credit to the private sector, and vi) human capital. These results are in line with the results obtained in the literature.

2016

1. Potential Labor Impact of the Access to Pension 65

   César Salinas ,  and  Javier Torres

   Economía y Sociedad (In Spanish), Dec 2016

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   This research evaluates the impact of Pension 65, a Peruvian State program that provides an economic subsidy to older adults over 65 years of age who live in extreme poverty, on the hours worked in the main occupation of older adults. In urban areas the program seems to have a greater impact; possibly due to a greater supply of available jobs that would allow a reduction in the number of working hours. However, for rural areas the program does not find a significant effect. The economic situation or the composition of the household could be a determining factor in this behavior. In these areas, it is suggested to evaluate the application of various programs. Perhaps, the joint application of these is necessary to achieve an increase in the rest time of the elderly population in rural areas.

2014

1. Fiscal Policy Asymmetries in an Emerging Economy: the Case of Peru, 1992-2013

   Micaela Chuquilín ,  and  César Salinas

   In Applied Economics: Economic Research Essays 2013 (In Spanish) , Aug 2014

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   This research studies the disaggregated and asymmetric effects of fiscal policy in Peru for the period 1992-2013. Using econometric techniques to estimate the impulse-response functions asymmetrically based on the economic cycles, the study finds that the presence of asymmetries in the effect of fiscal policy on the Peruvian economic cycle. Moreover, the expenditure multipliers are greater than income multipliers, and expenditure multipliers, especially in capital investment, are more effective in attenuating the fall in national production during recessionary times.